Comments on: How to Estimate Earnings Growth with Excel http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm Stock-picking is an art. I have sympathy for all who attempt it. Thu, 24 May 2012 06:06:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: cj http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-3288 cj Thu, 24 May 2012 06:06:43 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-3288 @Israel I think I figured it out, it is exactly as it says EPS = 0.2749*YEAR – 548.09 I entered it like this =(0.2749*2007+ – 548.09) Ofcource you can click into the cells with the pre determined vales for 0.2749 and -548.09 since we already calculated those. Good luck @Israel I think I figured it out, it is exactly as it says EPS = 0.2749*YEAR – 548.09

I entered it like this =(0.2749*2007+ – 548.09)

Ofcource you can click into the cells with the pre determined vales for 0.2749 and -548.09 since we already calculated those.

Good luck

]]> By: cj http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-3287 cj Thu, 24 May 2012 05:53:01 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-3287 I have the same question as Israel, what exactly is the value that was plugged into YEAR? EPS = 0.2749*YEAR – 548.09 After trying several values I am not coming up with the answer Thank you I have the same question as Israel, what exactly is the value that was plugged into YEAR? EPS = 0.2749*YEAR – 548.09

After trying several values I am not coming up with the answer

Thank you

]]> By: Israel http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-3103 Israel Fri, 06 Apr 2012 14:42:51 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-3103 Good day. Thank you so much for sharing such a valuable article. I truly appreciate it. Unfortunately, I'm a bit green still in excel so I have a question if you don't mind. First how do you produce the graph? I can't seem to find it in excel and I also have a problem plugging the numbers. In the YEAR, do you actually put "2007" for example or just the count, like "11". Thank you so much in advance. More power. Good day.
Thank you so much for sharing such a valuable article. I truly appreciate it. Unfortunately, I’m a bit green still in excel so I have a question if you don’t mind. First how do you produce the graph? I can’t seem to find it in excel and I also have a problem plugging the numbers. In the YEAR, do you actually put “2007″ for example or just the count, like “11″. Thank you so much in advance. More power.

]]> By: Quang http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-3062 Quang Thu, 15 Mar 2012 17:23:57 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-3062 Hi there, In column A of my excel file, I have the number of applications I received daily and in column B I have the Dates. Something like this: Column A Column B 3 01/3/2012 6 01/04/2012 5 01/05/2012 9 01/07/2012 and so on for the last 3 months. Can I use the same steps you outlined above to predict the number of applications that I will anticipate to receive daily over the next 90 days based on the numbers that I have received daily over the last 90 days. Thank you so much in advance for your help! I also am interested in learning how to use Matlab if you do offer the lesson for a fee. Hi there,

In column A of my excel file, I have the number of applications I received daily and in column B I have the Dates. Something like this:

Column A Column B
3 01/3/2012
6 01/04/2012
5 01/05/2012
9 01/07/2012
and so on for the last 3 months.

Can I use the same steps you outlined above to predict the number of applications that I will anticipate to receive daily over the next 90 days based on the numbers that I have received daily over the last 90 days.

Thank you so much in advance for your help!

I also am interested in learning how to use Matlab if you do offer the lesson for a fee.

]]> By: Lumilog http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-3058 Lumilog Fri, 09 Mar 2012 12:07:20 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-3058 Thanks for the comments, Tunio. Yes, negative EPS can be a problem. You might be better off changing the spreadsheet to work with future <b>sales per share</b> instead of EPS. Also have it estimate future <b>net margin</b> based on the 10-yr history the same way. Finally, multiple the estimate of future sales per share by future net margin to get an estimate of future EPS. Thanks for the comments, Tunio. Yes, negative EPS can be a problem. You might be better off changing the spreadsheet to work with future sales per share instead of EPS. Also have it estimate future net margin based on the 10-yr history the same way. Finally, multiple the estimate of future sales per share by future net margin to get an estimate of future EPS.

]]> By: Tunio, Hussain Bux http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-3057 Tunio, Hussain Bux Fri, 09 Mar 2012 09:51:30 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-3057 Dear Lumilog Thanks your article I shall try to apply this at about 100 companies data listed in karachi stock exchange. But there is problem of negative EPS in between of 10 years data. Dear Lumilog

Thanks your article I shall try to apply this at about 100 companies data listed in karachi stock exchange. But there is problem of negative EPS in between of 10 years data.

]]> By: sandy http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-2979 sandy Mon, 26 Dec 2011 06:53:30 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-2979 I am confused since the intercept and slope remain the same for all future periods then by just changing the year we the results will be very close to each other. I am very new to this! i did it for a company i am analysing and this is what i got EPS growth rate from 2005 to 2018. how can you explain such big differences in the growth rate for the period we have data for but then EPS changes at almost constant rate thereafter. Thanks for your help :) 13.79 36.36 -3.33 -21.84 10.29 10.40 3.04 2.95 2.86 2.78 2.71 2.64 2.57 I am confused since the intercept and slope remain the same for all future periods then by just changing the year we the results will be very close to each other. I am very new to this! i did it for a company i am analysing and this is what i got EPS growth rate from 2005 to 2018. how can you explain such big differences in the growth rate for the period we have data for but then EPS changes at almost constant rate thereafter. Thanks for your help :)

13.79
36.36
-3.33
-21.84
10.29
10.40
3.04
2.95
2.86
2.78
2.71
2.64
2.57

]]> By: Lumilog http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-2582 Lumilog Sun, 26 Dec 2010 19:25:59 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-2582 Thanks for the comment Ian. I'm not overly familiar with logistic regression, but isn't its answer usually just a Yes or No? Or maybe just the probability of something happening or not (you were thinking probability of missing what the street is expecting?). It's certainly an interesting idea - maybe one to be solved more by multifactor models tuned over historical data in Matlab rather than using Excel's linear regression. By the way, if you're into predicting election results, Oscar winners, etc., you should check out the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market" target = "_blank" rel="nofollow">prediction markets</a> at <a href="http://www.intrade.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Intrade</a>. Fascinating stuff... - Lumi Thanks for the comment Ian. I’m not overly familiar with logistic regression, but isn’t its answer usually just a Yes or No? Or maybe just the probability of something happening or not (you were thinking probability of missing what the street is expecting?). It’s certainly an interesting idea – maybe one to be solved more by multifactor models tuned over historical data in Matlab rather than using Excel’s linear regression. By the way, if you’re into predicting election results, Oscar winners, etc., you should check out the prediction markets at Intrade. Fascinating stuff…

- Lumi

]]> By: Ian http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-2569 Ian Sat, 04 Dec 2010 00:00:13 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-2569 Hello, Lumi, Very nice job. I am also like you, turn form engineering area to finance area, or you can say it is still engineering, which is financial engineering. This artical is about estimate EPS, so I want to ask how can we use logistic regression method to estimate the EPS? I present this method is because it was used very well by someone to predict political election and even Oscar and world cup winner. I appreaciate a lot. Hello, Lumi,
Very nice job. I am also like you, turn form engineering area to finance area, or you can say it is still engineering, which is financial engineering.

This artical is about estimate EPS, so I want to ask how can we use logistic regression method to estimate the EPS? I present this method is because it was used very well by someone to predict political election and even Oscar and world cup winner.

I appreaciate a lot.

]]> By: Lumilog http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm/comment-page-1#comment-2465 Lumilog Wed, 14 Jul 2010 14:35:10 +0000 http://luminouslogic.com/how-to-estimate-earnings-growth-with-excel.htm#comment-2465 Shimi - for example, for cell C5 the value should be: =log(B5) You'll run into problems if the value in the B column is negative, in which case you have to add an offset (and later remove it) to be able to do log( ). Hope this helps! Shimi – for example, for cell C5 the value should be:

=log(B5)

You’ll run into problems if the value in the B column is negative, in which case you have to add an offset (and later remove it) to be able to do log( ).

Hope this helps!

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